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Bitcoin could still reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
Hougan doubled down on his December forecast despite recent market volatility, citing the historical inverse relationship between Bitcoin prices and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
“In the short term, there’s a well-documented inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin,” said Hougan in an April 9 blog post. “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up. I expect this pattern will continue.”
The US Dollar Index has dropped more than 7% since January, while Bitcoin bounced back to $81,700 yesterday. That’s a 7.5% jump in just 24 hours, though still well below its $109,000 peak from January.
Hougan points to recent statements from Steve Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who criticized the dollar’s reserve status as causing “persistent currency distortions” and “unsustainable trade deficits” that have “decimated” US manufacturing.
“The Trump administration wants a weaker dollar, even if it means ending its role as the world’s reserve currency,” Hougan wrote.
This shift in monetary policy could trigger major changes in global finance, Hougan believes. When currency stability becomes questionable, governments and companies look for alternatives.
“Governments and companies turn to the dollar for international trade precisely because of its stability. When that stability comes into question, they have to look elsewhere,” Hougan explained.
Some evidence of this transition is already emerging. VanEck reported earlier this week that China and Russia are settling some energy trades in Bitcoin as Trump’s trade policies intensify.
On April 9, Trump issued a 90-day pause on nearly all previously announced “reciprocal tariffs,” keeping only a baseline 10% tariff on all countries except China, which faces a 125% tariff.
Other experts back Hougan’s view. Crypto analyst Will Clemente posted online that “Bitcoin will be the fastest horse coming out of this drawdown.”
“It’s a pure reflection of liquidity and no earnings. If anything, economic uncertainty and deglobalization are positive for Bitcoin,” Clemente added.
Looking beyond immediate price predictions, Hougan envisions a fundamental shift in the global financial system – moving from a single dominant currency to “a more fractured reserve system” where assets like Bitcoin and gold play an increasingly important role.
