Android runs in nearly eight of every 10 new smartphones worldwide (according to IDC), making the mobile operating system seem invincible.

But there are some chinks in its armor.

Some analysts expect Android’s market share to drop for the first time in 2014, as devices running ndows one gain share while Apple’s second-place iOS remains flat. More Android smartphones will ship overall in 2014 than did last year because the market for smartphones is still growing, but Android’s share will decline slightly, from about 78% in 2013 to 76% in 2014.

Samsung, the largest maker of Android smartphones, is expected to introduce smartphones running on an alternative platform, Tizen, in 2014. Tizen is an open source OS that Samsung Intel have been promoting to developers.

“There is no question in my mind that Samsung is trying to distance itself as much as possible from Android as a br,” said Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at tar rld nel. “I think Samsung will try to create its own ecosystem on Tizen with devices able to run Android apps as well as Tizen.”

Moorhead of Moor Insights & Strategy added, “To better control its own destiny for wearables, mobile devices inside the home, Samsung needs to own the entire experience also the services.” Samsung can’t own the entire experience with Android alone. Moorhead said he expects Samsung to ship Tizen devices sometime in 2014, but that the transition will be slow.

Hurry up wait

Analysts differ on how drastic the shift to Tizen away from Android will be for Samsung.

Samsung’s work with Tizen is “about spreading their risk, because if all their development is under one [Android] platform, they are at risk,” said Burden, an analyst at Strategy Analytics. “It’s hard to think of anything threatening Android with its nearly 80% of the market, but remember, Symbian [under Nokia] at one point had 70% of the market.”

In 2008, a year after the first ione came out, Symbian dropped to a 50% market share, down from 62% the prior year. Now that part of Nokia is being purchased by Microsoft, Symbian has all but disappeared. “It was a fast fall for Symbian, we’ve learned that the mobile industry can change quickly,” Burden said.

“In just five years it can be totally different,” he said. “The worst thing that any company that builds Android devices can think is that Android will always be number one is unflappable. If they feel ‘we’ve got this in the bag,’ it can be game over quickly. That kind of hubris attitude got companies like BlackBerry, lm, Nokia into trouble over the last few years.”

Strategy Analytics said new Android sales peaked in 2013 at 78% of the market will begin to slide to 76% in 2014. Meanwhile, because of growth in the overall smartphone market, Android will sell about 880 million devices in 2014, up from 783 million in 2013.

Tizen hasn’t recorded significant sales so far, but could sell 7 million to 8 million devices in 2014, nearly all under the Samsung br, for a market share of less than 1%, Burden said. Tizen could grow to 45 million devices in 2018, assuming Samsung sticks with it. “Remember, Samsung backed Bada as an OS, then bailed on Bada,” he added.

Not breaking up with Android

ck , an analyst at Associates, said Tizen’s influence over Samsung doesn’t mean Samsung is moving off Android. “Samsung is staying with the core of Android, but like so many other vendors, it is trying to differentiate itself on features functions not available in stard versions of Android,” said. 

Since “Samsung does one of everything … you will see Samsung experiment with all kinds of options, like Tizen,” he said.

didn’t comment on its relationship with Samsung, but Samsung recently issued a statement to saying that “Samsung remains committed to Android.” At the same time, Samsung said it “has been actively working on the Tizen ecosystem, together with Tizen Association members partners. Samsung is committed to delivering the best mobile experience based on the open platform a full-ready eco-system around it.”

One way that Tizen could gain momentum at Samsung, or elsewhere, is by attracting more HTM5 developers who could fairly easily convert Android apps to use with the Tizen OS. HTM5 provides b-based applications as an alternative to native apps purchased in the ay store, but HTM5 so far has been slow to catch on because it can cause slower device performance than native apps.

Some HTM5 developers see a greater use of graphical processing units in new mobile devices in 2014 to improve HTM5 performance, however. “As applications move beyond the smartphone into vehicles, wearables, TVs even the refrigerator, developers are figuring out how to build for those apps, the only technology that makes sense right now is HTM5,” said Abe Elias, chief technology officer for Sencha, a b app development company.

“Everybody wants to be in control of their own destiny Tizen offers that ability to Samsung,” Elias said. Samsung already has access to Android developers could use that group to build a new ecosystem based on Tizen. “Developers would have a chance for profitability with Tizen.”

Samsung probably won’t start shipping Tizen products until wireless carriers dem such products, Milanesi. But once Tizen is ready for the market, consumers might not even pay much attention to the switch.

Samsung is “trying to make Android the engine inside the [metaphorical] car that nobody cares about creating a connection with users by layering on a set of applications services that should tie consumers back to Samsung,” Milanesi said. “If Samsung is successful in doing this, in running the new Magazine user experience [already used in some Samsung tablets Note devices] on top of Android, users might not even notice the switch when it happens in favor of Tizen.”